Developing countries most vulnerable to climate change

A new report released by the UN says that least developed countries will likely be the most affected by global climate change. Not that we didn't know this already.

Aside from the environmental effects, the report said that climate change impacts LDCs and SIDS in the economic, human and social cultural realms as well.

Reduced rainfall and prolonged droughts could lead to dwindling water supplies, while subsistence agriculture, on which these countries depend heavily, will be harmed by increased tropical cyclones, droughts and loss of soil fertility. Coastal flooding, droughts and disease could also force many people out of their homes.

When Countries Implode, NPR Explodes!

Well, not explodes per se. But the combined power of White Man's Burden/"The Ideology of Development" author William Easterly and Confessions of an Economic Hit Man author John Perkins on Kojo Nnamdi is most explosive indeed!

And I do plan to have more to say about Easterly's FP article but I've been busy with things.

Dominicans Agree With ILO: Child Labor Ain't So Bad

As reported by the Inter Press News Service, some 60% of Dominicans believe that some work is reasonable or beneficial for children, as long as it doesn't interfere with schooling or cause physical or mental harm. A majority also do not see child labor as a major social problem.

Although some organizations quoted in the story are surprised by this finding, this puts Dominicans in line with the general worldwide consensus of ILO conventions 138 and 182:

Tasks appropriate to a child's age and that do not interfere with a child's schooling and leisure time can be a normal part of growing up in a rural environment. Indeed, many types of work experience for children can be positive, providing them with practical and social skills for work as adults. Improved self-confidence, self-esteem and work skills are attributes often found in young people engaged in some aspects of farm work.

Climate Change and Conflict in Sudan

According to a report by the United Nations Environment Programme, the Darfur conflict is linked intimately with climate change. Land degradation, desertification, and declining rainfall has led to increased competition for resources and threatens to reignite the old conflict between the Nuba and Shanabla in Southern Kurdofan.

Many sensitive areas are also experiencing a "deforestation crisis" which has led to a loss of almost 12 per cent of Sudan's forest cover in just 15 years. Indeed, some areas may undergo a total loss of forest cover within the next decade.

Meanwhile, there is mounting evidence of long-term regional climate change in several parts of the country. This is witnessed by a very irregular but marked decline in rainfall, for which the clearest indications are found in Kordofan and Darfur states.

In Northern Darfur for example precipitation has fallen by a third in the past 80 years says the report by the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) and its Post-Conflict and Disaster Management Branch.

delicious this

This is not a new finding per se - tribal conflict attributed to desertification is common in the Sahel, from Niger to Burkina Faso to Ghana to Mali. The problem becomes notable acute when the expanding Sahara pushes nomadic pastoralists onto agricultural lands. However, Sudan.has an annual GDP that could allow it to invest in environmental protection measures that would prevent climate change from spreading conflict to other parts of the country. Whether this is something the Khartoum government wants, however, is another matter.

Milennium Development Goals News Flash - We're Not Going to Make It

In the least surprising news story since the non-discovery of WMD in Iraq, it appears that the world is probably not going to achieve the MDG goal of universal primary education by 2015 after all. The reason, according to Save The Children, is conflict.

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"It is outrageous that there are 39 million children still not going to school in areas affected by conflict." says Jasmine Whitbread, CEO of Save the Children.

Whitbread continued "World leaders must recognise the vulnerability of children in countries affected by conflict around the world and start taking their promises seriously. If we don't act now, there'll be a whole new generation of children going without education while we sit back and watch."

Saluting Dr. Massouda Jalal

In belated recognition of Mother's Day in Afghanistan (I usually recognize it belatedly in America too...) I'm saluting Dr. Massouda Jalal, regular presidential candidate and founder of the Jalal Foundation. This foundation works to empower and educate women in Afghanistan on gender issues, human rights, and leadership skills.

Their current campaign for Mother's Day is promoting maternal health via posters, brochures, and broadcast media. In a country where one in twenty women dies during pregnancy and childbirth, this is a much-needed campaign.

Thanks, CEDPA!

What are YOU doing to celebrate World Day to Combat Desertification?

I'm gonna just go ahead and quote the International Fund for Agricultural Development on this one:

The World Day to Combat Desertification, celebrated each year on June 17, is part of an international campaign by the United Nations to tackle global environmental deterioration, in particular the degradation of drylands. The day marks the anniversary of the adoption of the United Nations Convention to Combat Desertification. This year’s theme is “water resource management and desertification'.

Today, more than 135 million people worldwide are at risk of forced migration due to the problem. Caused mainly by climate change, inappropriate agricultural policies and practices, deforestation and overgrazing, desertification affects the world’s poorest and most marginalized populations.

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Fighting desertification is essential to ensuring the long-term productivity of drylands where people live. Each year, 12 million hectares are lost to deserts. That is enough land to grow 20 million tonnes of grain. Unfortunately, efforts to combat this growing problem have often failed.

Africa, Energy, and Alliances

The Development Bank of Southern Africa has decided to join the Energy Poverty Alliance, it was announced at the World Economic Forum in Cape Town today The bank will provide office space for the Alliance's management unit, develop a brand for electrification projects, and facilitate linkages with international business capability, and will help develop financing mechanisms. Canada's BC Hydro, South Africa's Eskom (aka Elektrisiteitsvoorsieningskommissie in Afrikaans) , and Sweden's Vattenfall are initiating partners in the project.

The Energy Poverty Alliance has so far committed to two pilot projects, in Lesotho and the DRC, that are expected to provide electricity to 70,000 people. From the WE Forum site:

1. Rural, off-grid pilot project in Lesotho
A community of 1,150 households has been identified for the implementation of the off-grid system using a two-stage approach of hydro and solar power. Preliminary research indicates that approximately US$ 2.5 million will be needed. This includes a network, hydro power station, solar home system, engineering and support.

Hydropower, eh? I'm surprised there's any water left in Lesotho to dam.

2. Peri-urban, grid extension pilot project in Democratic Republic of the Congo
An underdeveloped community of 10,000 households has been identified for implementation. The capital cost for the project, including transmission, distribution, reticulation and revenue management is estimated at US$ 13.5 million for 10,000 connections. The initiative has gained much support from the governments concerned as well as from utilities and local power companies. Now, support is sought with a view to a major roll-out of further electricity projects.

This says nothing about generation, only trasnsmission. I'm guessing that this is merely an extension of the power grid from the DRC's existing hyrdropower plants, which are about to get some much-needed renovation.

Vulture Capitalists

Wow. I can't believe I'm only just learning about this practice.

It sounds like something from a 419 Scam email, only in reverse. As reported by Greg Palast and on BBC Newsnight, the "vulture fund" buys the debt of developing countries such as Zambia at a rockbottom price (often just before they receive debt relief), then sues the country for the full value of the debt.

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According to Palast, about half of aid money for Africa is being sucked up by Vulture Capitalists. Funny - I thought it was African central banks and the IMF's poor economic modelling that were the constraints on ODA absorption.

One in Five Brits Doesn't Believe in Agriculture

Thanks Gristmill!

So yeah so according to a new report by the Linking Environment and Farming organization, 22% of British adults don't know that bacon and sausage originate on farms. 40% didn't know that yogurt originate on farms, and nearly half believe that beer is produced by magical beer faeries rather than from farm-based ingredients.

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Now I can't fully make fun of the British public for this. Not when my country is home to the $27 million Moron Magnet. But it's still rather interesting, and I have to wonder how United Statesians would fare in such a survey.

This is Zionism

Biodiesel Power in Mali!

700 rural villages in Mali are now receiving electricity from biodiesel generators. These generators are powered by jatropha oil, an inedible locally-grown plant that won't compete with local food crops. Mali eventually hopes to power all 12,000 villages win the country with this source before embarking on any export ventures.

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Because jatropha can be grown on arid land, requires little care, and can help prevent erosion, it is more likely to complement than compete with food crops—a common concern with many biofuels. “They came to explain the project to us and said that if we grow jatropha it can produce oil to make the machine work,” said Daouda Doumbia, an elder in the Malian village of Simiji, which was recently outfitted with a biodiesel generator. “I grow groundnuts, and this activity can go alongside it as a partner crop,” he explained.

And the best part is that they can do it without killing orangutans!

What "Olympic Standards" Mean in China

The U.S. House of Representatives has passed a resolution urging China to use its influence to stop the genocide of Fur, Zaghawa, and other tribes in the Darfur region of Sudan. The resolution asks China to stop selling arms to Sudan, stop economic cooperation with the country, and "act consistently with the Olympic standard of preserving human dignity in Darfur, Sudan, and around the world."

I found this last bit very interesting, considering how China has been applying the "Olympic standard" in its own capital. A new report from the Centre on Housing Rights and Evictions details the effects of mega-events such as sporting events, world fairs and expos, and international conferences on vulnerable populations in the host cities. This is something I observed personally during a visit to Beijing two years ago. Hutong villages dating back hundreds if not thousands of years are being demolished to make way for new high-rises.

I had no idea of the full extent, however. The statistics from Beijing are pretty staggering:

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• By April 2007, at least 1.25 million people had been displaced as a result of urban development linked to the Olympic Games, and unknown numbers of these people were forcibly evicted.
  
• At least a further 250,000 people are expected to be displaced in the final year before the Olympic Games, resulting in a total of 1.5 million people being displaced in Beijing by August 2008 due to Olympics related development.
  
• These figures do not include approximately 400,000 migrants living 'temporarily' in 171 neighbourhoods in situations of extreme insecurity, having come to Beijing due to lack of livelihood opportunities in rural areas.
  
• Over the period between 2006 and 2008, an average of 60,000 homes per year were or are being demolished, displacing 156,000 people per year. This scale has more than doubled since Beijing was elected as an Olympic Host City in 2001.
  
• Of the total number of person displaced in Olympics related development, COHRE estimates that each year, as many as 33,000 people with sustainable livelihoods were pushed into poverty, or deeper poverty, because their homes and neighbourhoods were demolished. This scale has doubled since Beijing was elected as an Olympic Host City in 2001.

The full report is huge but quite interesting. Often these displacements disproportionately effect ethnic minorities and the historically disadvantaged.

Holy snap! Cat 2 Cyclone Guno hitting Oman soon

Tropical Cyclone Guno, a Category 4 storm at its peak, is beginning to hit the Sultanate of Oman and will probably come fully ashore in the next 12 hours. This is rather unprecedented event - there has not been a hurricane in this part of the world for at least the last 60 years.

Sleepless in Muscat will be liveblogging as long as he can.

Gristmill wonders if climate change might have something to do with it. Hmmmmmm. Ya think?

Climate change and national security

Gristmill discusses a new report from the CNA Corporation details the security threats posed by climate change:

Projected climate change poses a serious threat to America’s national security.
The predicted effects of climate change over the coming decades include extreme weather events, drought, flooding, sea level rise, retreating glaciers, habitat shifts, and the increased spread of life-threatening diseases. These conditions
have the potential to disrupt our way of life and to force changes in the way we keep ourselves safe and secure.

In the national and international security environment, climate change threatens to add new hostile and stressing factors. On the simplest level, it has the potential to create sustained natural and humanitarian disasters on a scale far beyond those we see today. The consequences will likely foster political instability where societal demands exceed the capacity of governments to cope.

Climate change acts as a threat multiplier for instability in some of the most volatile regions of the world.

Projected climate change will seriously exacerbate already marginal living standards in many Asian, African, and Middle Eastern nations, causing widespread political instability and the likelihood of failed states.

Unlike most conventional security threats that involve a single entity acting in specific ways and points in time, climate change has the potential to result in multiple chronic conditions, occurring globally within the same time frame.
Economic and environmental conditions in already fragile areas will further erode as food production declines, diseases increase, clean water becomes increasingly scarce, and large populations move in search of resources.

Weakened and failing governments, with an already thin margin for survival, foster the conditions for internal conflicts, extremism, and movement toward increased authoritarianism and radical ideologies.

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The U.S. may be drawn more frequently into these situations, either alone or with allies, to help provide stability before conditions worsen and are exploited by extremists. The U.S. may also be called upon to undertake stability and reconstruction efforts once a conflict has begun, to avert further disaster and reconstitute a stable environment.